You CAN’T TRUST JULIO JONES on your FANTASY TEAM!

julio-jones

Last season I wrote a piece called Trade Julio Jones. I wrote it a day before the Atlanta Falcons took on the Washington Redskins in their 5th game of the season. From the time of that post through the end of the season (12 more games), Julio Jones on scored four touchdowns and only eclipsed the 100-yard mark in receiving six times. 

Considering that most people drafted Julio Jones in the first round last year, this is far from what you expect from your star fantasy wide receiver. Many of you who did not listen to my advice, likely loss your league solely because week after week Julio Jones gave you pedestrian statistics.

Now that I have taken two short paragraphs to say “I told you so”, I will double down by saying that you can’t trust Julio Jones on your fantasy team! If the world were to right itself and somehow he became a second or third round pick, then I would consider Jones as my receiver. Even with Jones limping into the season, most ranking still put him in the top three for wide receivers and nearly everyone who drafts him will draft him as their number one pick. I think this is insane for a player who I think is a lock to be hampered by injuries all season long. Some may be encouraged that Jones started every game last year, but I would contend that his health was at less than average for his position for about 75 percent of the season.

Injury Science continues to lead me to the belief that Julio Jones simply has too much Freaky Talent and has yet to find a way to harness his abilities so that they do not tear up his body. Julio Jones has a history of missing games with multiple hamstring injuries, bone fractures, hip pointers, and a number of minor lower extremity conditions that he has played through. The things that I have mentioned are only the main stream injuries that the public has access to, but who knows what other injuries he has that we don’t hear about. I am betting on an abbreviated season for Jones during which the Atlanta Falcons learn to diversify their targets to other wide receivers now that Roddy White has moved on and Mohamed Sanu has and Aldrick Robinson have moved in.

I am even more sure than I was last season when I said to trade Julio Jones despite him coming into the season with 478 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first four games. I don’t know if it will be the ankle, if it will be a hamstring or groin, or if he steps his injury game up to a more serious level this year; but I think it’s coming early this season and many Julio Jones owners will see their seasons flushed down the toilet.

Let me know what you think @DrPettyIRD

8 thoughts on “You CAN’T TRUST JULIO JONES on your FANTASY TEAM!”

  1. I am just about to start a draft with the 2nd pick. A reference I trust recommend Julio as 2nd pick. I’m going to deviate and take your advice. Let you know what happens.

  2. Talk about misleading statistics! The idea that Julio lost anybody any leagues last year is ridiculous – after the week 5 you mention he averaged 116 yds receiving per game, broke the 150 yd mark in a game THREE times, as was the #3 WR in fantasy (just in that span). Yeah, really pedestrian…

    1. good stats but touchdowns is what you need from your number one pick. The bigger point was that his production declined significantly as the year progressed and he will continue to trend in that direction…I won’t try to convince you though…you shall see it with your own eyes this season.

      1. I agree with Josh – Julio won me my league (PPR) last year. If you play in non PPR then maybe this argument that Julio is not worthy of a top 5 pick makes sense but TD’s are the most unpredictable part of fantasy….you want a player that can score from anywhere on the field and that gets funneled a ton of targets….Julio fits the bill. His performance vs Panthers (Championship week / week 15) showed how even the top ranked cover corner cannot stop him.

        1. Chris I agree with you on the points about targets and scoring from anywhere, but I am from the Herm Edwards school of thought that the best ability is Availability. I simply don’t think Julio will be available when you need him. In many ways we are saying the same thing, because I most definitely think that Julio would be a great late 2nd or 3rd round pick; but when I say you can’t trust him I am talking to the 90% of people who are drafting him early 1st round. If there are people snagging him later, I applaud them as they will allow themselves to appreciate the upside that he provides while not getting burned if his injury profile gets in the way. In a deep league, not having consistent numbers from your number 1 will lose you the league.

  3. The last 3 weeks of the season he had 445 yds and 2 TDs, winning people fantasy championships. He does have nagging injury concerns but I think he’s missed one game over the last two years – where’s the history of missing games? TDs are the goal, but they come from opportunity (targets) and nobody gets more than Julio. TDs will normalize this year.

    1. 4 TDS in first 4 weeks followed by 4 in the last 12 weeks is not what I want from a number one pick. With that said, my opinion is more about the future although influenced by the past. Your are right on his missed game stat, but that doesn’t account for the non 100% games, which led to that inconsistency over the last 8 games. I expect this to only get worse. I expect you to have a lot more to say one way or the other by about mid-season. No one can be right all the time, but I am all in that Julio lets every down this year (by that I mean less than top 5 WR productivity and likely an abbreviated season). Lets get more data in the future and see where we stand then. Good remarks Josh, I appreciate being challenged…

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