Note: after slight adjustments to the SEP rating system, Aaron Rodgers was elevated to number 19 in the rankings.
May 13, 2015
Most believe Aaron Rodgers to be the cream of the crop when it comes to NFL Quarterbacks, but is he a smart bet?
As that time of year approaches quickly, I know many are already thinking about fantasy drafts, over/unders for the season, and Super Bowl picks. For most, this is a task of looking at what teams did in the draft and how a teams talent projects to the upcoming season. You could say that trying to measure each team and each players abilities is the best place to start when trying to make predictions on the upcoming season. But if that is your strategy then I would say you are WRONG!
I believe it is former coach and player, and now ESPN analyst Herm Edwards who says it best; “The best ability is AVAILABILITY“. Last season was a great example of this for those who had the pleasure of having Aaron Rodgers help them dominate fantasy leagues all season. If you are one of those people, you also know that the domination came to a screeching halt at the end of the season when Rodgers injured his calf just in time for Fantasy Playoffs. Now some of you may have been supreme shakers and movers an survived this, but if you were like me, you went from favorite to win the league to out in the first round.
Some may believe that Aaron Rodgers injury was purely chance but I suggest that his injury was entirely predictable. In fact, I suggest that the probability for any player to be injured is entirely predictable. Imagine if you can not only pick the right team or the right players, but could also maximize the probability that those players would be AVAILABLE when you most need them. This is why I developed The SEP Reliability Rating!
The SEP Reliability rating is now here to make this process easier for you. My SEP rating takes Science, Evidence, and Performance and puts them in a blender which delivers a rating with the information you need. We have rated all the notable players that you will be following, and have calculated simple ratings that will allow you to determine who is more likely to be there when you need them. While a player like Aaron Rodgers may put up great numbers; should you take him over Matt Ryan or Tony Romo? If you are simply answering this question by how good you think each quarterback is, then you might just find yourself scrambling at the end of the season and starting a QB like Brian Hoyer due to injury.
The numbers are in, and if your smart you will be on the look out as we release these ratings that should guide how you look at the 2015/2016 season in its entirety. Since I have talked about Aaron Rodgers so much, I will give a sneak peek about my rating on him. Would you believe me if I told you that Aaron Rodgers is only the 20th most reliable Quarterback in the NFL? Should you be spending a high draft pick on someone who has 19 other Quarter backs who are more reliable than him? Should you be betting that the Packers can win a Superbowl with a Quarterback that may not be at full strength in crunch time? Many will use statistics on how many fantasy points Rodgers had last year and think he is great, but most leagues don’t reward you much for having a lot of points. The goal is to win match ups and to especially win match ups at the end of the season. I contend that my SEP Reliability rating is best equip to predict this most important factor.
Simply put, The SEP Reliability Rating is the next level of analysis for those who are serious about being right. I think we all agree that Aaron Rodgers is the best Quarterback in the league or at least top three, but do you really want him on your fantasy team? Do you really want to wager that he can lead his team to the Superbowl? Take my advice and do not let subjective feeling guide you when it comes to fantasy football or any other wagering. There are some big buildings in Vegas built on people’s who used gut feelings to predict outcomes. I have combined years of data, performance, and expertise to give you an edge…..Stay tuned so you can use it!